Marx
Fakultäten » Philosophische Fakultät » Psychologisches Institut » Allgemeine Psychologie » Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Marx (emeritiert) » Marx
Completed research project
| Title / Titel | Gambler's Fallacy: A Question of Ecological Adaptivity | ||||
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| Abstract (PDF, 14 KB) | |||||
| Original title / Originaltitel | s.o. | ||||
| Summary / Zusammenfassung | It can be demonstrated thar different gambling variants in roulette show different levels of effecttiveness when applied to short-terme games. In order to explore this phenomenon, the project compares the limited win strategy, the avoidence strategy and the St. Petersburg game. The limited win strategy proves itself to be superior when the aim is to achieve the maximum probability of landing in the winning zone. On this basis we argue that the diagnosis of gambler's fallacy is in most cases based on a misinterpretation of the betting behavior demonstrated in the framework of the limited win strategy. In a two-stage experiment it can be verified that only few sujects display a false concept of alternative probabilities. Instead, we suggest a model, according to which an individual is in a position to switch at will between the reference categories run of same outcome and indipendent event when observing serial events. | ||||
| Keywords / Suchbegriffe | gambler's fallacy, cognitive illusions, betting behavior, certainty effect | ||||
| Project leadership and contacts / Projektleitung und Kontakte |
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| Funding source(s) / Unterstützt durch |
Other Public Sources (e.g. Federal or Cantonal Agencies) |
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| Duration of Project / Projektdauer | Mar 2003 to Mar 2008 |